Potassium production is estimated to increase at a high speed of 27.3% in 2009 with a production of 3.7 million MT. Domestic consumption is estimated to decrease 20% in the meantime due to high potassium price. Though potassium imports tumbled to a new low of 1.5 million MT since 1990, supply looked not so strained. Potassium stock was about 1.1 million MT at the end of 2009, resulting in a stock/consumption ratio of 22.2% (slightly down from the previous year). Subject to weak demand, potassium price stayed low in 2009 until the fourth quarter.

Now that potassium import contracts have been signed, potassium imports are predicted to increase 60% in 2010 over the previous year, but potassium import price may slip 40%. Meanwhile, domestic potassium production is under rapid expansion. It is expected that 2010 may see s substantial recovery of demand but a continuous price decline.

Potassium stock is predicted to be 1.5 million MT (nutrient) at the end of 2010, an increase of 400,000 MT on the year-on-year basis. Potassium stock/consumption ratio may be 26.2%, up 4% on the year-on-year basis.